TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Medvedev vs T. Boogaard (Hertogenbosch on 2026-06-11) — the market is efficient, with D. Medvedev favoured at 1.08.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Medvedev | T. Boogaard |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
73.5% | 26.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
84.1% | 15.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
37.7% | 62.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.1% | 34.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
88.1% | 11.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Medvedev | hard | 1994 | 207–77 | 284 |
| T. Boogaard | hard | 1538 | 20–16 | 36 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 23, 2026.
D. Medvedev leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 12, 2026 | Hertogenbosch | grass | D. Medvedev | 2 - 1 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Cilic | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| L | J. Kumstat | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | G. Campana Lee | 1 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | G. Onclin | 2 - 1 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | C. Hewitt | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | O. Page | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
All June 11, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used