TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Kasatkina vs Z. Sonmez (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with D. Kasatkina favoured at 1.33.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Kasatkina | Z. Sonmez |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
52.9% | 47.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
67.6% | 32.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
43.3% | 56.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
54.6% | 45.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.9% | 28.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Kasatkina | hard | 1759 | 111–80 | 191 |
| Z. Sonmez | hard | 1722 | 95–68 | 163 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
D. Kasatkina leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | French Open | clay | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 0 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used