TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Galfi vs A. Potapova (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with A. Potapova favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Galfi | A. Potapova |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
40.3% | 59.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
25.0% | 75.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.0% | 46.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.8% | 60.2% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
32.6% | 67.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Galfi | clay | 1687 | 92–68 | 160 |
| A. Potapova | hard | 1713 | 81–83 | 164 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 14, 2026.
A. Potapova leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Potapova | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 7, 2023 | Adelaide 2 | hard | A. Potapova | 1 - 1 |
| L | E. Seidel | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | M. Sherif | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | K. Rinaldo Persson | 0 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | F. Jorge | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | S. Lamens | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | V. Williams | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Bouzas Maneiro | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | E. Alexandrova | 1 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | Z. Sonmez | 0 - 1 | June 11, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used