TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Dzumhur vs A. Mannarino (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with D. Dzumhur favoured at 1.24.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Dzumhur | A. Mannarino |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
83.8% | 16.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
69.7% | 30.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.6% | 36.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
72.4% | 27.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
76.6% | 23.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Dzumhur | clay | 1693 | 110–83 | 193 |
| A. Mannarino | hard | 1711 | 105–111 | 216 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | D. Dzumhur | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 27, 2019 | Zhuhai | hard | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 |
| W | G. Blancaneaux | 2 - 0 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | H. Gaston | 0 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | M. Arnaldi | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Tien | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Galarneau | 1 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | R. Bertola | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 3 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used