TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Astakhova vs L. Giovannini (Brescia (Italy) - Qualification on 2026-06-17) — the market is efficient, with D. Astakhova favoured at 1.85.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Astakhova | L. Giovannini |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.8% | 48.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
36.5% | 63.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.7% | 50.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.7% | 49.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Astakhova | clay | 1598 | 104–57 | 161 |
| L. Giovannini | clay | 1663 | 128–49 | 177 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
L. Giovannini leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 17, 2026 | Brescia (Italy) - Qualification | clay | L. Giovannini | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Cengiz | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | F. Jones | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | N. Noha Akugue | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | K. Rinaldo Persson | 0 - 2 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | D. Jakupovic | 2 - 0 | July 9, 2026 |
| L | L. Stefanini | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | Xiy. Wang | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | D. Astakhova | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Mazzola | 1 - 2 | June 15, 2026 |
| L | F. Pace | 2 - 0 | June 3, 2026 |
All June 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used