TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in D. Altmaier vs R. Hijikata (Hamburg on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with D. Altmaier favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | D. Altmaier | R. Hijikata |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
76.8% | 23.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
80.1% | 19.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
38.9% | 61.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
65.3% | 34.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.6% | 34.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Altmaier | clay | 1741 | 128–82 | 210 |
| R. Hijikata | hard | 1725 | 183–115 | 298 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 4, 2024 | Montreal | hard | R. Hijikata | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Vukic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Munar | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Shapovalov | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. De Jong | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 0 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | J. Lehecka | 2 - 1 | June 18, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used