TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Ugo Carabelli vs A. Shevchenko (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with C. Ugo Carabelli favoured at 1.56.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Ugo Carabelli | A. Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.7% | 25.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
85.1% | 14.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.1% | 45.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
71.3% | 28.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
60.8% | 39.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Ugo Carabelli | clay | 1796 | 208–111 | 319 |
| A. Shevchenko | clay | 1681 | 128–89 | 217 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 20, 2026.
A. Shevchenko leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Shevchenko | 2 - 1 |
| L | C. Norrie | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Droguet | 2 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | P. Carreno-Busta | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Topo | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | K. Jacquet | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | D. Stricker | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used