TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. McNally vs D. Kasatkina (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with C. McNally favoured at 1.89.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. McNally | D. Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
45.3% | 54.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
38.9% | 61.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
64.1% | 35.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
49.4% | 50.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. McNally | hard | 1736 | 85–66 | 151 |
| D. Kasatkina | hard | 1759 | 111–80 | 191 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 6, 2026 | Rome | clay | C. McNally | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 25, 2021 | Cleveland | hard | D. Kasatkina | 2 - 1 |
| W | T. Maria | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | K. Liutova | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | Y. Ma | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | Xiy. Wang | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | E. Rybakina | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used