TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in C. Garin vs L. Tien (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with L. Tien favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | C. Garin | L. Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
74.5% | 25.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
76.2% | 23.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
38.2% | 61.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.0% | 37.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.4% | 63.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated May 26, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | L. Tien | 3 - 1 |
| March 7, 2023 | ATP Indian Wells | hard | C. Garin | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Tien | 1 - 3 | May 26, 2026 |
| L | H. Squire | 2 - 1 | May 16, 2026 |
| L | L. Midon | 1 - 2 | May 12, 2026 |
| L | A. Davidovich Fokina | 0 - 2 | May 9, 2026 |
| W | J. M. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | May 7, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used