TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Sabalenka vs J. Bouzas Maneiro (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with A. Sabalenka favoured at 1.04.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | J. Bouzas Maneiro |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
69.2% | 30.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
76.5% | 23.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
69.2% | 30.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
71.6% | 28.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
92.6% | 7.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2224 | 196–58 | 254 |
| J. Bouzas Maneiro | clay | 1679 | 122–67 | 189 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.
A. Sabalenka leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 14, 2025 | Cincinnati | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 15, 2025 | Australian Open | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Kostovic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| W | A. Arseneault | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | M. Bouzkova | 2 - 0 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Yastremska | 1 - 2 | July 1, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used