TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Sabalenka vs D. Kasatkina (French Open on 2026-05-30) — the market is efficient, with A. Sabalenka favoured at 1.11.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Sabalenka | D. Kasatkina |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
79.0% | 21.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
88.2% | 11.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
68.1% | 31.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
78.4% | 21.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
87.8% | 12.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sabalenka | hard | 2224 | 196–58 | 254 |
| D. Kasatkina | hard | 1759 | 111–80 | 191 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 28, 2026.
A. Sabalenka leads 5–2 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| June 20, 2024 | WTA Berlin | grass | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| Jan. 5, 2024 | WTA Brisbane | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 5, 2023 | WTA US Open | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 17, 2023 | WTA Cincinnati | hard | A. Sabalenka | 2 - 0 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | J. Ostapenko | 2 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Kessler | 2 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | T. Kostovic | 2 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Pegula | 1 - 2 | June 20, 2026 |
| W | Xin. Wang | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | A. Smith | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Bolkvadze | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | N. Osaka | 0 - 2 | July 3, 2026 |
All May 30, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used