TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Popyrin vs M. Berrettini (Rome on 2026-05-06) — the market is efficient, with M. Berrettini favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Popyrin | M. Berrettini |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
28.8% | 71.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
24.9% | 75.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.3% | 45.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
36.0% | 64.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.3% | 65.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Popyrin | hard | 1665 | 84–96 | 180 |
| M. Berrettini | hard | 1804 | 70–53 | 123 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 1, 2026.
Level at 2–2 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Rome | clay | A. Popyrin | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 22, 2025 | Vienna | hard | M. Berrettini | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 29, 2024 | ATP Paris | hard | A. Popyrin | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 25, 2021 | Vienna | hard | M. Berrettini | 2 - 0 |
| W | T. Kokkinakis | 1 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Andrade | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Lehecka | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | J. Choinski | 2 - 1 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | M. Navone | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 3 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | S. Wawrinka | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 1 | June 3, 2026 |
All May 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used