TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Muller vs S. Tsitsipas (French Open on 2026-05-24) — the market is efficient, with S. Tsitsipas favoured at 1.16.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Muller | S. Tsitsipas |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.1% | 60.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
28.9% | 71.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.6% | 48.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
39.9% | 60.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
18.8% | 81.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Muller | clay | 1637 | 103–90 | 193 |
| S. Tsitsipas | hard | 1815 | 133–83 | 216 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
S. Tsitsipas leads 4–0 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 26, 2026 | French Open | clay | S. Tsitsipas | 1 - 0 |
| Aug. 26, 2025 | US Open | hard | S. Tsitsipas | 3 - 1 |
| May 9, 2025 | Rome | clay | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 8, 2024 | ATP Shanghai | hard | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 |
| L | G. Den Ouden | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | M. Poljicak | 1 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Cecchinato | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | S. Napolitano | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | M. Navone | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | K. Rice | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. De Minaur | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Rinderknech | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 24, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used