TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Ghibaudo vs P. Bar Biryukov (Mallorca on 2026-06-20) — the market is efficient, with A. Ghibaudo favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Ghibaudo | P. Bar Biryukov |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
73.2% | 26.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
56.1% | 43.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
48.1% | 51.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
73.2% | 26.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.9% | 41.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Ghibaudo | hard | 1515 | 92–72 | 164 |
| P. Bar Biryukov | hard | 1607 | 127–83 | 210 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 21, 2026.
A. Ghibaudo leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 20, 2026 | Mallorca | grass | A. Ghibaudo | 2 - 0 |
| July 25, 2024 | M25 Astana | hard | A. Ghibaudo | 2 - 1 |
| W | T. Duran | 0 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | A. Sanchez Quilez | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | D. Added | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | L. Castelnuovo | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | L. Maxted | 2 - 0 | July 6, 2026 |
| L | P. Inchauspe | 0 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| W | G. Shebekin | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | D. Zhalgasbay | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | S. Mitsui | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Kunitsyn | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
All June 20, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used