TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Bublik (moneyline) at 2.51 in A. Bublik vs T. Paul (US Open on 2026-09-04). Result: LOST.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Bublik | T. Paul |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.7% | 57.3% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
51.8% | 48.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
64.8% | 35.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
48.9% | 51.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
37.9% | 62.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Oct. 24, 2026.
T. Paul leads 5–1 over 6 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 4, 2026 | US Open | hard | T. Paul | 3 - 2 |
| Aug. 31, 2025 | US Open | hard | A. Bublik | 3 - 2 |
| March 22, 2025 | Miami | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 1 |
| July 5, 2024 | ATP Wimbledon | grass | T. Paul | 3 - 0 |
| March 4, 2021 | Rotterdam | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 1 |
| L | D. Medvedev | 1 - 0 | Oct. 24, 2026 |
| W | K. Khachanov | 2 - 1 | Oct. 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 2 - 1 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| W | B. Nakashima | 2 - 1 | Oct. 11, 2026 |
| W | T. Machac | 2 - 0 | Oct. 9, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 2 - 1 | Nov. 6, 2026 |
| W | Q. Halys | 2 - 0 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| W | H. Rune | 2 - 0 | Nov. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
All Sept. 4, 2026 results & picks →