TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Anisimova (moneyline) in A. Anisimova vs M. Keys (Wimbledon on 2026-07-04).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Anisimova | M. Keys |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.4% | 52.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
57.8% | 42.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
50.8% | 49.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.2% | 49.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
45.3% | 54.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Anisimova | hard | 1994 | 90–46 | 136 |
| M. Keys | hard | 1898 | 91–56 | 147 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 24, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | M. Keys | 2 - 1 |
| Nov. 3, 2025 | Finals - Riyadh | hard | A. Anisimova | 2 - 1 |
| L | M. Keys | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | S. Kenin | 2 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Gjorcheska | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | I. Jovic | 2 - 1 | June 12, 2026 |
| W | L. Siegemund | 0 - 2 | June 10, 2026 |
| L | L. Samsonova | 2 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | A. Anisimova | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | K. Swan | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | K. Day | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
All July 4, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════════ A. Anisimova vs M. Keys — Wimbledon (grass) 1/16 ═══════════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS ELO prob(A) 0.474 → leans Keys (agrees market) ML prob(A) 0.578 → leans Anisimova (DISAGREES market) Model prob(A) 0.502 → coin flip Market imp(A) 0.453 (A 2.05 / B 1.70) value_pick A, edge +4.8% FORM — A. Anisimova (grass, fresh) W Kenin 6-2 4-6 7-6(10) GRIND Avg 2d ago W Gjorchesk. 6-3 6-2 DOM Avg 4d ago L Jovic 3 sets (Elite) London QF W Siegemund 6-1 6-3 DOM Strong London Wimbledon 2-0. Quality grass player, competitive vs elite. FORM — M. Keys (grass, elite form but gassed) W Swan 6-1 6-4 DOM 2d ago W Day 6-7 6-4 6-3 GRIND 3 sets W Maria 7-5 6-4 EASTBOURNE FINAL (Strong) — TITLE 7d ago Full Eastbourne title run + Berlin QF (2 TBs vs Pegula). Higher opponent quality beaten than A — genuinely strong. FATIGUE (decisive) A: 2 matches/14d, 6 sets, 154min court, 0 back-to-back B: 9 matches/14d, 27 sets, 560min court, 5 back-to-back Court-time diff 406min (>60) → Keys heavily disadvantaged. NARRATIVE TITLE: Eastbourne (grass) 7d ago — live form strong but body taxed. LET-DOWN: WEAK (title won 7d ago) but stacked on extreme workload. Venue: both 2-0 at Wimbledon — neutral, amplifies nothing. VERDICT ML edge + market value on A validated by a dramatic freshness gap: Keys enters on 560min/9-match/5-back-to-back legs off a title; Anisimova is fresh and priced at plus-money (2.05). Back the fresh underdog. Modest size — ELO/quality still respect Keys, let-down only WEAK. BET A. Anisimova @2.05, 1.0u.