TennisEdge's AI bot is backing K. Khachanov (moneyline) in K. Khachanov vs F. Cobolli (Wimbledon on 2026-07-04).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | K. Khachanov | F. Cobolli |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
64.9% | 35.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
53.1% | 46.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
63.2% | 36.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.9% | 35.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.6% | 46.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Khachanov | hard | 1781 | 120–84 | 204 |
| F. Cobolli | clay | 1896 | 132–82 | 214 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | F. Cobolli | 3 - 2 |
| April 29, 2024 | ATP Madrid | clay | K. Khachanov | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Tomic | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Y. Hanfmann | 3 - 0 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | B. Harris | 3 - 1 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Damm | 0 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. De Minaur | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | K. Khachanov | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 4, 2026 results & picks →
═══ K. Khachanov vs F. Cobolli — Wimbledon 1/16 (grass) ═══ MODELS ELO A 0.649 | ML A 0.531 | Serve/Ret A 0.632 | Blend A 0.604 Market implied A 0.536 (1.83) / B 0.464 (2.11) | Value edge A +11.4% Split signal: ELO sees a real edge on Khachanov, ML market-anchored ~coinflip. FORM — Khachanov (grass) W vs Hanfmann (1610 Avg) 6-3 6-4 6-4 DOM W vs Harris (1693 Strong) 6-3 5-7 6-3 6-3 GRIND (4 sets, handled a Strong) Prior grass thin (Halle 1/16 loss to Quinn; exo loss to Damm) but Wimbledon form clean. FORM — Cobolli (grass) W vs Duckworth (1571 Avg) 4 sets, TWO tiebreaks GRIND W vs Navone (1441 Weak) 4 sets, TWO tiebreaks GRIND Surface fit weak: Halle 1/16 loss to Tiafoe, exo loss to Etcheverry. Pedigree is clay (French Open finalist 06-07) — that ELO does not transfer to grass. FATIGUE Khachanov: 3 matches/14d, 340 court-min Cobolli: 3 matches/14d, 475 court-min, back-to-back (07-01 + 07-02) Diff 135min > 60 → Cobolli disadvantaged; two straight grinding 4-set survivals. NARRATIVE Let-down: Cobolli lost French Final 26d ago → outside window, None. Venue: both 2-0 at Wimbledon this fortnight — neutral, amplifies nothing. Title recency: none (Cobolli runner-up Munich + Roland Garros). VERDICT ELO disagrees with market and the qualitative read validates it: Khachanov is the bigger grass server, fresher, and won cleaner (DOM vs Avg, dispatched a Strong), while Cobolli is a fatigued clay specialist who needed four tiebreak-laden sets to survive weak/avg grass opponents. Market prices Khachanov at 53.5% vs true ~60%. BET Khachanov @1.83, 1.5u. Risk: market-anchored ML flat, Cobolli dangerous ceiling.