TennisEdge's AI bot is backing A. Fery (moneyline) in Z. Bergs vs A. Fery (Wimbledon on 2026-07-04).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | Z. Bergs | A. Fery |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.1% | 40.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
53.6% | 46.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
59.1% | 40.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.0% | 42.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 27, 2026.
A. Fery leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 4, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | A. Fery | 3 - 2 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | A. Fery | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 2 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | U. Humbert | 2 - 1 | June 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Zverev | 0 - 3 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | G. Dimitrov | 2 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Bergs | 2 - 3 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | O. Virtanen | 3 - 1 | July 2, 2026 |
All July 4, 2026 results & picks →
═══════════════════════════════════════════ Z. BERGS (A) vs A. FERY (B) — Wimbledon 1/16-finals (grass) ═══════════════════════════════════════════ MODELS Market: A 1.60 (58.0%) | B 2.21 (42.0%) | value_pick A, edge +1.1% (negligible) ELO: A 59.1% → agrees with market (Bergs favored) ML: A 47.6% → DISAGREES, favors FERY (52.4%) Consensus: split — ELO+market on Bergs, ML on Fery. Bot: PASS (no mutual agreement). FORM — BERGS (grass, last 14d = title run + deep Wimbledon) W Faria (1727) 7-6 4-6 6-2 6-3 GRIND (4 sets) W Humbert (1764) 2-6 5-7... won 3-2 5-SETTER GRIND vs Strong W Humbert (1794) 3-6 6-1 6-4 EASTBOURNE FINAL — TITLE, vs Strong W Samuel (1609) 4-6 7-6 6-2 GRIND W Choinski(1581) 6-3 6-3 DOM W Munar (1629) 6-2 6-4 DOM Elite grass form — beat Humbert twice, won a title. But grindy and relentless. FORM — FERY (grass) W Virtanen (1839) 5-7 7-6 6-3 6-3 quality win vs Elite-ish W Dzumhur (1440) lost s1 then 6-2 6-2 6-1 DOM finish L J.M.Cerundolo (1396) 2-6 6-7 bad loss vs Weak (inconsistency flag) W Burruchaga(1545) 6-2 4-6 7-5 GRIND W Mannarino (1807) 7-6 6-4 quality vs Strong W Samuel (1581) 6-0 6-2 DOM Leveled up at Wimbledon (Dzumhur, Virtanen). Fresher legs. FATIGUE (heavy side disadvantaged when court-time diff > 60min) Bergs: 7 matches/14d, 5/7d, 21 sets, 782min court, back-to-back x2 Fery: 5 matches/14d, 2/7d, 15 sets, 642min court, back-to-back x1 Diff = 140min (>60) → BERGS disadvantaged. Both 2 days' rest. Bergs' load: won an Eastbourne title + a 5-setter, then a 4-setter — 21 sets in 14d. NARRATIVE Let-down: Bergs won Eastbourne Final 6d ago → WEAK (partly spent, 2 Wimbledon wins since). Title recency: Bergs TITLE Eastbourne 6d ago (grass) — live form high. Venue: both 2-0 at Wimbledon this event. VERDICT — BET FERY (B) @ 2.21, 1.0u Market edge on Bergs is essentially nil (+1.1%). The lone model dissent (ML → Fery) is validated by a concrete, large fatigue gap: Bergs is carrying 21 sets/14d incl. a fresh title and a 5-setter, +140min court time over a fresher Fery who has quality grass wins (Virtanen 1839, Mannarino 1807). Plus-money on the fresher man with model support = value. Predicted match winner remains Bergs (favorite); this is a contrarian value play on the underdog, sized small given Fery's inconsistency (loss to Cerundolo 1396). ═══════════════════════════════════════════