TennisEdge's AI bot is backing X. Gao +7.5 (game handicap) at 2.20 in X. Gao vs I. Swiatek (Beijing on 2026-10-03). Result: WON.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | X. Gao | I. Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
7.4% | 92.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
6.5% | 93.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
52.8% | 47.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
22.2% | 77.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
14.2% | 85.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| X. Gao | hard | 1579 | 114–75 | 189 |
| I. Swiatek | hard | 2057 | 204–54 | 258 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Nov. 5, 2026.
I. Swiatek leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 3, 2026 | Beijing | hard | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| L | P. M. Nugroho | 0 - 2 | Nov. 5, 2026 |
| W | N. Kawaguchi | 2 - 0 | Nov. 4, 2026 |
| L | R. Zarazua | 1 - 1 | Oct. 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Frodin | 1 - 2 | Oct. 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Tikhonova | 0 - 2 | Oct. 21, 2026 |
| L | M. Chwalinska | 0 - 2 | Oct. 17, 2026 |
| W | A. Li | 0 - 2 | Oct. 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 2 | Oct. 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 0 - 2 | Oct. 14, 2026 |
| L | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 | Oct. 9, 2026 |
All Oct. 3, 2026 results & picks →