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T. Samuel vs G. Bueno — Prediction & Analysis

French Open · ATP French Open - Final · May 21, 2026 · 12:30 UTC

TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Samuel vs G. Bueno (French Open on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with T. Samuel favoured at 1.75.

Surface clay Odds T. Samuel 1.75 · G. Bueno 2.02

Verdict: no bet

The model found no value at current prices — the market has this one priced about right. That verdict is part of the public record too.
Profiles: T. Samuel · G. Bueno · head-to-head record · French Open

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method T. Samuel G. Bueno
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
28.5% 71.5%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
20.7% 79.3%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
57.4% 42.6%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
35.5% 64.5%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
53.6% 46.4%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
T. Samuel hard1840 101–32133
G. Bueno clay1648 163–124287

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.

Head to head

T. Samuel leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
May 21, 2026French OpenclayT. Samuel2 - 1

Recent form

T. Samuel

L J. D. Hara Friend 2 - 0 July 29, 2026
W J. Pinnington Jones 0 - 2 July 29, 2026
W L. Draxl 0 - 2 July 26, 2026
W C. Broom 0 - 2 July 25, 2026
W Y. H. Hsu 0 - 2 July 24, 2026

G. Bueno

L J. Kumstat 2 - 0 Aug. 2, 2026
W N. Gombos 0 - 2 Aug. 1, 2026
W J. B. Torres 0 - 0 July 31, 2026
W H. Barton 0 - 2 July 30, 2026
W P. Martinez Gomez 0 - 2 July 28, 2026

All May 21, 2026 results & picks →

Full analysis

Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used