TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Samuel vs G. Bueno (French Open on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with T. Samuel favoured at 1.75.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Samuel | G. Bueno |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
28.5% | 71.5% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
20.7% | 79.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
57.4% | 42.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
35.5% | 64.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
53.6% | 46.4% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
T. Samuel leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | French Open | clay | T. Samuel | 2 - 1 |
| L | J. D. Hara Friend | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Pinnington Jones | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | C. Broom | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | Y. H. Hsu | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| L | J. Kumstat | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | N. Gombos | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | J. B. Torres | 0 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | H. Barton | 0 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez Gomez | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used