TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Chwalinska vs S. Lamens (French Open on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with M. Chwalinska favoured at 1.28.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Chwalinska | S. Lamens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
68.4% | 31.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
76.3% | 23.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.4% | 58.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
62.0% | 38.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
71.2% | 28.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Chwalinska | clay | 1841 | 113–59 | 172 |
| S. Lamens | hard | 1585 | 81–74 | 155 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 6, 2026.
M. Chwalinska leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Chwalinska | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 13, 2026 | Oeiras 2 | hard | M. Chwalinska | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Sawangkaew | 2 - 1 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | M. Linette | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | M. Andreeva | 0 - 2 | June 6, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 0 - 2 | June 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 0 - 2 | June 3, 2026 |
| L | E. Pridankina | 2 - 1 | June 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Rajecki | 0 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | P. Badosa | 0 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | D. Galfi | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
| W | T. J. Brockmann | 2 - 0 | June 15, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used