TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Holmgren vs F. Diaz Acosta (French Open on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with F. Diaz Acosta favoured at 1.39.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Holmgren | F. Diaz Acosta |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
24.4% | 75.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
19.9% | 80.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
51.3% | 48.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
31.9% | 68.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
31.2% | 68.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Holmgren | hard | 1624 | 118–73 | 191 |
| F. Diaz Acosta | clay | 1816 | 188–98 | 286 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
F. Diaz Acosta leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | French Open | clay | F. Diaz Acosta | 2 - 1 |
| L | B. Shick | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Draxl | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | G. Johns | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Vukic | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. Boulais | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| W | M. Poljicak | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | V. Gaubas | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | J. C. Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | F. Forti | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | T. Compagnucci | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used