TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Cecchinato vs A. Pellegrino (French Open on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with A. Pellegrino favoured at 1.42.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Cecchinato | A. Pellegrino |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
43.6% | 56.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
24.7% | 75.3% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.4% | 38.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.2% | 56.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.1% | 65.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Cecchinato | clay | 1683 | 180–136 | 316 |
| A. Pellegrino | clay | 1724 | 175–135 | 310 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
A. Pellegrino leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Pellegrino | 2 - 0 |
| July 23, 2024 | Verona | clay | A. Pellegrino | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Muller | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | F. Agamenone | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| W | G. A. Olivieri | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | D. Ajdukovic | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | T. Monteiro | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | C. A. Caniato | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Bueno | 1 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. D. Silva | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used