TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Paul vs D. Altmaier (Hamburg on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with T. Paul favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Paul | D. Altmaier |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
51.6% | 48.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
55.1% | 44.9% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
66.3% | 33.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
57.6% | 42.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
65.9% | 34.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Paul | hard | 1894 | 154–80 | 234 |
| D. Altmaier | clay | 1741 | 128–82 | 210 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 28, 2026.
T. Paul leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | T. Paul | 2 - 0 |
| Oct. 16, 2023 | ATP Tokyo | hard | T. Paul | 2 - 1 |
| L | K. Majchrzak | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | H. Hurkacz | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Kwon | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 1 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| W | A. Vukic | 1 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | A. Molcan | 2 - 1 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | R. Collignon | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used