TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in L. Darderi vs A. De Minaur (Hamburg on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with A. De Minaur favoured at 1.73.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | L. Darderi | A. De Minaur |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
73.4% | 26.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
82.2% | 17.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
77.1% | 22.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
77.6% | 22.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
45.2% | 54.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Darderi | clay | 1922 | 193–101 | 294 |
| A. De Minaur | hard | 1972 | 161–82 | 243 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 25, 2026.
A. De Minaur leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | A. De Minaur | 2 - 0 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 0 - 2 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | C. Hewitt | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 0 - 3 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | Z. Svajda | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used