TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Kovacevic vs C. Ugo Carabelli (Hamburg on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with C. Ugo Carabelli favoured at 1.44.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Kovacevic | C. Ugo Carabelli |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.8% | 80.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
22.6% | 77.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
30.8% | 69.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
24.4% | 75.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
34.4% | 65.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kovacevic | hard | 1669 | 153–121 | 274 |
| C. Ugo Carabelli | clay | 1796 | 208–111 | 319 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
A. Kovacevic leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | A. Kovacevic | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 15, 2025 | Stockholm | hard | A. Kovacevic | 1 - 1 |
| L | N. Borges | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | B. Van De Zandschulp | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 0 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | F. Cerundolo | 1 - 2 | June 16, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Droguet | 2 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | R. A. Burruchaga | 2 - 1 | July 16, 2026 |
| W | P. Carreno-Busta | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Topo | 1 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used