TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in I. Buse vs U. Humbert (Hamburg on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with I. Buse favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | I. Buse | U. Humbert |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
75.3% | 24.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.4% | 28.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
60.1% | 39.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
68.9% | 31.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
69.5% | 30.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| I. Buse | clay | 1814 | 133–81 | 214 |
| U. Humbert | hard | 1831 | 131–80 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
I. Buse leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Hamburg | clay | I. Buse | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| L | B. Shelton | 1 - 2 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Martin | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | Z. Bergs | 2 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | Z. Bergs | 2 - 1 | June 28, 2026 |
| W | J. Draper | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used