TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. M. Etcheverry vs D. Medvedev (Halle on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with D. Medvedev favoured at 1.20.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. M. Etcheverry | D. Medvedev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.2% | 80.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.8% | 65.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
45.9% | 54.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
20.0% | 80.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
21.1% | 78.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. M. Etcheverry | clay | 1796 | 187–98 | 285 |
| D. Medvedev | hard | 1994 | 207–77 | 284 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 24, 2026.
D. Medvedev leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Halle | grass | D. Medvedev | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | I. Buse | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J. Rodionov | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 0 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Merida Aguilar | 1 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | M. Cilic | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | D. Altmaier | 2 - 1 | June 19, 2026 |
| W | T. Atmane | 0 - 2 | June 17, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used