TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Fonseca vs Y. Hanfmann (Halle on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with J. Fonseca favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Fonseca | Y. Hanfmann |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
59.2% | 40.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
74.4% | 25.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
58.1% | 41.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
64.2% | 35.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
70.2% | 29.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Fonseca | hard | 1954 | 61–22 | 83 |
| Y. Hanfmann | clay | 1810 | 123–82 | 205 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 18, 2026.
Y. Hanfmann leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Halle | grass | Y. Hanfmann | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. Moutet | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 3 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | N. Kyrgios | 0 - 3 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | R. Safiullin | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | J. De Jong | 0 - 3 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | B. Bonzi | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | L. Neumayer | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used