TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Rublev vs H. Hurkacz (Halle on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with H. Hurkacz favoured at 1.80.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Rublev | H. Hurkacz |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
53.2% | 46.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.9% | 58.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.4% | 52.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Rublev | hard | 1854 | 163–90 | 253 |
| H. Hurkacz | hard | 1777 | 125–81 | 206 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated April 4, 2026.
H. Hurkacz leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Halle | grass | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 7, 2025 | Rotterdam | hard | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 |
| Oct. 15, 2023 | ATP Shanghai | hard | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 |
| March 17, 2022 | Indian Wells | hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 |
| Feb. 25, 2022 | Dubai | hard | A. Rublev | 2 - 1 |
| L | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
| L | J-L. Struff | 2 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | T. Paul | 3 - 1 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | S. Ofner | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | C. Ruud | 0 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| L | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used