TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Bellucci vs A. Bublik (Halle on 2026-06-16) — the market is efficient, with A. Bublik favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Bellucci | A. Bublik |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
32.0% | 68.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
47.0% | 53.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
34.6% | 65.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
31.0% | 69.0% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
29.8% | 70.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Bellucci | hard | 1722 | 152–98 | 250 |
| A. Bublik | hard | 1879 | 111–93 | 204 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 20, 2026.
M. Bellucci leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 16, 2026 | Halle | grass | M. Bellucci | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | U. Humbert | 2 - 1 | June 23, 2026 |
| L | R. Collignon | 2 - 1 | June 18, 2026 |
| W | A. Bublik | 2 - 0 | June 16, 2026 |
| W | A. Bolt | 2 - 1 | June 14, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | A. Molcan | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | F. Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 1 - 2 | July 17, 2026 |
All June 16, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used