TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in T. Droguet vs F. Auger-Aliassime (Montreal on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with F. Auger-Aliassime favoured at 1.13.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | T. Droguet | F. Auger-Aliassime |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
19.0% | 81.0% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
36.2% | 63.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
16.3% | 83.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
21.6% | 78.4% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
15.8% | 84.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Droguet | clay | 1787 | 133–65 | 198 |
| F. Auger-Aliassime | hard | 1996 | 169–85 | 254 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 22, 2026.
F. Auger-Aliassime leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb. 7, 2026 | Montpellier | hard | F. Auger-Aliassime | 2 - 1 |
| W | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | H. Gaston | 2 - 0 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 2 - 1 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | D. Merida Aguilar | 2 - 0 | July 16, 2026 |
| L | N. Djokovic | 2 - 3 | July 7, 2026 |
| W | A. Davidovich Fokina | 3 - 2 | July 5, 2026 |
| W | M. Zheng | 3 - 0 | July 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Prizmic | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Shevchenko | 3 - 0 | June 29, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used