TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in I. Buse vs C. Norrie (Montreal on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with C. Norrie favoured at 1.45.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | I. Buse | C. Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
23.6% | 76.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
34.3% | 65.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
59.3% | 40.7% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
38.5% | 61.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
35.3% | 64.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
| L | T. M. Etcheverry | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | K. Feldbausch | 1 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | V. Kopriva | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Tsitsipas | 2 - 0 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | J. Brooksby | 3 - 0 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | C. Ugo Carabelli | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | D. Shapovalov | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | B. Tomic | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | J. Duckworth | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Kovacevic | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used