TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in N. Mejia vs L. Musetti (Montreal on 2026-08-06) — the market is efficient, with L. Musetti favoured at 1.04.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Mejia | L. Musetti |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
14.0% | 86.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
18.0% | 82.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
40.4% | 59.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
14.0% | 86.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
14.8% | 85.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Mejia | hard | 1591 | 88–100 | 188 |
| L. Musetti | hard | 1907 | 96–84 | 180 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
| W | M. Landaluce | 2 - 1 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Trungelliti | 1 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | A. Hernandez | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Soto | 2 - 0 | July 12, 2026 |
| W | J. P. Varillas | 2 - 1 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | R. Jodar | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Vukic | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Arnaldi | 0 - 1 | July 27, 2026 |
| L | C. Ruud | 0 - 2 | May 12, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 2 - 0 | May 10, 2026 |
All Aug. 6, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used