S. Baez vs G. Dimitrov — Prediction & Analysis

Cincinnati · · Aug. 13, 2026 · 14:00 UTC

TennisEdge's AI bot is backing S. Baez (moneyline) at 2.21 in S. Baez vs G. Dimitrov (Cincinnati on 2026-08-13). Result: WON.

Surface hard Odds S. Baez 2.14 · G. Dimitrov 1.54

Bot bet

S. Baez (moneyline) @ 2.21 · 0.75u
Result: WON
Read the reasoning on the bet sheet →
Profiles: S. Baez · G. Dimitrov · head-to-head record · Cincinnati

Model probabilities

Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.

Method S. Baez G. Dimitrov
Elo
ratings-based, surface-weighted
44.3% 55.7%
Machine learning
29-feature gradient-boosted model
59.9% 40.1%
Serve / return
point-by-point simulation
29.0% 71.0%
Blend
what the bot actually prices off
43.7% 56.3%
Market implied
de-vigged from the opening odds
41.8% 58.2%

We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?

Elo ratings

PlayerSurfaceEloRecordMatches
S. Baez hard1752 46–64110
G. Dimitrov hard1810 108–76184

Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 31, 2026.

Head to head

S. Baez leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.

DateEventSurfaceWinnerScore
Aug. 14, 2026CincinnatihardS. Baez2 - 1

Recent form

S. Baez

L B. Nakashima 3 - 0 Aug. 31, 2026
L J. M. Cerundolo 1 - 0 Aug. 26, 2026
W H. Grenier 0 - 2 Aug. 26, 2026
L H. Hurkacz 1 - 2 Aug. 24, 2026
W L. Harris 2 - 0 Aug. 23, 2026

G. Dimitrov

L A. Popyrin 1 - 3 Aug. 31, 2026
W O. Virtanen Walk Over Aug. 27, 2026
W T. Skatov 0 - 2 Aug. 26, 2026
W L. Giustino 0 - 2 Aug. 25, 2026
L S. Baez 2 - 1 Aug. 14, 2026

All Aug. 13, 2026 results & picks →

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