TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Sramkova vs M. L. Carle (French Open on 2026-05-22) — the market is efficient, with R. Sramkova favoured at 1.35.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Sramkova | M. L. Carle |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.6% | 49.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
49.3% | 50.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
54.8% | 45.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
51.5% | 48.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
69.7% | 30.3% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Sramkova | hard | 1703 | 89–75 | 164 |
| M. L. Carle | clay | 1548 | 166–111 | 277 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | French Open | clay | R. Sramkova | 2 - 1 |
| April 23, 2025 | Madrid | clay | M. L. Carle | 2 - 0 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | M. Sawangkaew | 0 - 2 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | J. Tjen | 2 - 0 | July 27, 2026 |
| W | G. Knutson | 0 - 2 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | C. Ansari | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | E. Lene | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | A. Kalinina | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | J. Niemeier | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| W | J. Pieri | 1 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| W | E. V. Eigelsbach | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
All May 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used