TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Carballes Baena vs H. Dellien (French Open on 2026-05-22) — the market is efficient, with H. Dellien favoured at 1.62.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Carballes Baena | H. Dellien |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.4% | 66.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
30.8% | 69.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
21.8% | 78.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
28.7% | 71.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.1% | 57.9% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Carballes Baena | clay | 1645 | 139–85 | 224 |
| H. Dellien | clay | 1741 | 207–112 | 319 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 29, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | French Open | clay | H. Dellien | 2 - 1 |
| May 11, 2023 | ATP Rome | clay | R. Carballes Baena | 2 - 0 |
| L | O. Wallin | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Houkes | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Huesler | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Sanchez Jover | 0 - 1 | July 12, 2026 |
| L | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | B. Bonzi | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | J. C. Prado Angelo | 1 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. Djere | 0 - 2 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | M. Ribecai | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
All May 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used