TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Jodar vs P. Carreno-Busta (French Open on 2026-05-31) — the market is efficient, with R. Jodar favoured at 1.21.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Jodar | P. Carreno-Busta |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
62.8% | 37.2% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
75.4% | 24.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.5% | 57.5% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
60.3% | 39.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
79.2% | 20.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Jodar | hard | 1905 | 67–22 | 89 |
| P. Carreno-Busta | hard | 1742 | 81–51 | 132 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
R. Jodar leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 2, 2026 | Wimbledon | grass | R. Jodar | 3 - 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | French Open | clay | R. Jodar | 3 - 2 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Musetti | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Nishikori | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 2 - 1 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | V. Gaubas | 0 - 2 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | C. Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | M. Dodig | 0 - 2 | July 14, 2026 |
| L | R. Jodar | 3 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
All May 31, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used