TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Kostyuk vs I. Swiatek (French Open on 2026-05-31) — the market is efficient, with I. Swiatek favoured at 1.29.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Kostyuk | I. Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.4% | 60.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
27.0% | 73.0% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
61.0% | 39.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
26.9% | 73.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Kostyuk | hard | 1904 | 118–72 | 190 |
| I. Swiatek | hard | 2021 | 184–49 | 233 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 22, 2026.
I. Swiatek leads 2–1 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | French Open | clay | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 16, 2024 | WTA Cincinnati | hard | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| March 16, 2024 | WTA Indian Wells | hard | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| L | L. Noskova | 0 - 2 | July 9, 2026 |
| W | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| W | A. Krueger | 0 - 2 | July 6, 2026 |
| W | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | A. Blinkova | 1 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Townsend | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | May 31, 2026 |
All May 31, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used