TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Mensik vs A. Rublev (French Open on 2026-05-31) — the market is efficient, with A. Rublev favoured at 1.77.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Mensik | A. Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.1% | 60.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
28.5% | 71.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.6% | 57.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
36.7% | 63.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
44.9% | 55.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 30, 2026.
J. Mensik leads 3–0 over 3 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | French Open | clay | J. Mensik | 3 - 2 |
| Oct. 5, 2024 | ATP Shanghai | hard | J. Mensik | 2 - 1 |
| Feb. 22, 2024 | ATP Doha | hard | J. Mensik | 2 - 0 |
| L | B. Nakashima | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | T. Svajda | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | G. Dimitrov | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Samuel | 3 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| W | H. Hurkacz | 2 - 1 | June 25, 2026 |
| L | L. van Assche | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | July 18, 2026 |
| W | S. Baez | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 31, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used