TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Jodar vs L. Darderi (Rome on 2026-05-13) — the market is efficient, with R. Jodar favoured at 1.40.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Jodar | L. Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
28.4% | 71.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
21.6% | 78.4% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
42.2% | 57.8% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
30.7% | 69.3% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
68.2% | 31.8% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Jodar | hard | 1905 | 67–22 | 89 |
| L. Darderi | clay | 1922 | 193–101 | 294 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
L. Darderi leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Rome | clay | L. Darderi | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | A. Tabilo | 2 - 1 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| W | L. Musetti | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | K. Nishikori | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Fils | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | D. Svrcina | 0 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | A. Blockx | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Faria | 1 - 2 | July 24, 2026 |
| W | P. Martinez | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| L | A. Rublev | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
All May 13, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used