TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Pegula vs I. Swiatek (Rome on 2026-05-13) — the market is efficient, with I. Swiatek favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Pegula | I. Swiatek |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
33.3% | 66.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
24.8% | 75.2% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
65.7% | 34.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
41.2% | 58.8% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
36.4% | 63.6% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Pegula | hard | 2077 | 192–73 | 265 |
| I. Swiatek | hard | 2021 | 184–49 | 233 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
I. Swiatek leads 7–5 over 12 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Rome | clay | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| June 28, 2025 | Bad Homburg | grass | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| Sept. 5, 2024 | WTA US Open | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 0 |
| Nov. 6, 2023 | WTA Finals - Cancun | hard | I. Swiatek | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 12, 2023 | WTA Montreal | hard | J. Pegula | 2 - 1 |
| L | A. Eala | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| W | D. Shnaider | 2 - 0 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| W | A. Kalinskaya | 2 - 0 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | M. Frech | 2 - 1 | July 30, 2026 |
| L | C. Gauff | 1 - 2 | July 7, 2026 |
| L | A. Eala | 2 - 0 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | Ka. Pliskova | 0 - 2 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Townsend | 1 - 2 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | E. Navarro | 1 - 2 | June 24, 2026 |
| L | M. Kostyuk | 2 - 0 | May 31, 2026 |
All May 13, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used