TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Brancaccio vs C. Tabur (Geneva on 2026-05-17) — the market is efficient, with C. Tabur favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Brancaccio | C. Tabur |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
42.9% | 57.1% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
43.2% | 56.8% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
49.8% | 50.2% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.3% | 54.7% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
37.5% | 62.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Brancaccio | clay | 1548 | 173–132 | 305 |
| C. Tabur | clay | 1616 | 156–93 | 249 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
C. Tabur leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Geneva | clay | C. Tabur | 2 - 1 |
| W | Z. Kolar | 0 - 2 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | H. Mayot | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | F. A. Gomez | 1 - 2 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | M. Dodig | 0 - 2 | July 10, 2026 |
| W | A. Pellegrino | 1 - 2 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | H. Squire | 1 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | O. Luz | 2 - 0 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | E. Butvilas | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | A. Rinderknech | 2 - 1 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | J. Rodionov | 2 - 1 | July 13, 2026 |
All May 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used