TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in J. Duckworth vs E. Butvilas (Geneva on 2026-05-17) — the market is efficient, with E. Butvilas favoured at 1.61.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | J. Duckworth | E. Butvilas |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
54.3% | 45.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
60.4% | 39.6% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
77.0% | 23.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
63.9% | 36.1% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
42.3% | 57.7% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Duckworth | hard | 1685 | 190–126 | 316 |
| E. Butvilas | hard | 1578 | 81–57 | 138 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 3, 2026.
E. Butvilas leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Geneva | clay | E. Butvilas | 2 - 0 |
| W | C. O'Connell | 2 - 0 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | C. Norrie | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | A. Mayo | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | F. Cobolli | 1 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | T. Griekspoor | 1 - 3 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. McDonald | 2 - 1 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | C. Tabur | 1 - 2 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | M. Huesler | 2 - 0 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | F. Ferreira Silva | 2 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
| L | M. Echargui | 1 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
All May 17, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used