TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in R. Bertola vs S. Mochizuki (French Open on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with R. Bertola favoured at 1.57.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | R. Bertola | S. Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.3% | 49.7% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
52.7% | 47.3% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
51.5% | 48.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
58.9% | 41.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Bertola | clay | 1579 | 137–99 | 236 |
| S. Mochizuki | hard | 1558 | 118–110 | 228 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated June 5, 2026.
R. Bertola leads 3–1 over 4 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 18, 2026 | Nottingham | grass | R. Bertola | 2 - 0 |
| May 18, 2026 | French Open | clay | R. Bertola | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 14, 2025 | Nonthaburi 3 | hard | S. Mochizuki | 2 - 0 |
| May 16, 2022 | Tunis | clay | R. Bertola | 2 - 0 |
| L | A. Ilagan | 2 - 0 | July 25, 2026 |
| L | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | S. Johnson | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 8, 2026 |
| L | M. Basing | 3 - 2 | June 25, 2026 |
| W | D. Sweeny | 2 - 1 | Aug. 1, 2026 |
| L | H. Matsuoka | 0 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | C. Broom | 2 - 1 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Draxl | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | J. Monday | 2 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used