TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in P. Herbert vs L. Riedi (French Open on 2026-05-22) — the market is efficient, with L. Riedi favoured at 1.36.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | P. Herbert | L. Riedi |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
39.2% | 60.8% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
24.5% | 75.5% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
18.4% | 81.6% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
27.4% | 72.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
30.8% | 69.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Herbert | hard | 1650 | 85–71 | 156 |
| L. Riedi | hard | 1730 | 101–51 | 152 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 10, 2026.
Level at 1–1 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | French Open | clay | P. Herbert | 2 - 1 |
| April 2, 2022 | Lugano | clay | L. Riedi | 2 - 1 |
| L | S. Kopp | 2 - 0 | July 18, 2026 |
| L | T. Monteiro | 2 - 1 | July 11, 2026 |
| L | P. Jubb | 0 - 2 | June 22, 2026 |
| L | M. Landaluce | 1 - 2 | June 8, 2026 |
| W | M. Alkaya | 0 - 2 | June 7, 2026 |
| W | H. Stewart | 1 - 2 | June 10, 2026 |
| L | M. Lajal | 2 - 0 | June 2, 2026 |
| L | P. Herbert | 2 - 1 | May 22, 2026 |
| W | G. Cadenasso | 1 - 2 | May 20, 2026 |
| W | C. Rodesch | 0 - 2 | May 19, 2026 |
All May 22, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used