TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in O. Virtanen vs A. Holmgren (French Open on 2026-05-18) — the market is efficient, with O. Virtanen favoured at 1.50.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | O. Virtanen | A. Holmgren |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
47.6% | 52.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
45.9% | 54.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
41.9% | 58.1% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
45.1% | 54.9% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
62.5% | 37.5% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Virtanen | hard | 1724 | 122–77 | 199 |
| A. Holmgren | hard | 1624 | 118–73 | 191 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated March 7, 2026.
A. Holmgren leads 2–0 over 2 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 18, 2026 | French Open | clay | A. Holmgren | 2 - 0 |
| April 7, 2025 | Madrid | clay | A. Holmgren | 2 - 1 |
| L | T. Skatov | 2 - 0 | July 30, 2026 |
| W | F. Romano | 0 - 2 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | D. Dedura | 2 - 1 | July 26, 2026 |
| W | M. Kasnikowski | 0 - 2 | July 25, 2026 |
| W | H. Squire | 0 - 0 | July 24, 2026 |
| L | B. Shick | 1 - 2 | July 29, 2026 |
| L | L. Draxl | 1 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | G. Johns | 2 - 1 | July 21, 2026 |
| L | A. Vukic | 2 - 1 | July 19, 2026 |
| W | J. Boulais | 2 - 0 | July 17, 2026 |
All May 18, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used