TennisEdge's AI bot is backing E. Mertens (moneyline) in N. Osaka vs E. Mertens (Bad Homburg on 2026-06-23).
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | N. Osaka | E. Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
31.1% | 68.9% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
40.4% | 59.7% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
55.6% | 44.4% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
42.4% | 57.6% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
54.8% | 45.2% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Osaka | grass | 1842 | 14–8 | 22 |
| E. Mertens | grass | 1816 | 27–21 | 48 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 7, 2026.
N. Osaka leads 5–2 over 7 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sept. 5, 2026 | US Open | hard | N. Osaka | 2 - 1 |
| Aug. 7, 2026 | Toronto | hard | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| June 23, 2026 | Bad Homburg | grass | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 9, 2024 | Toronto | hard | E. Mertens | 2 - 0 |
| June 11, 2024 | WTA Hertogenbosch | grass | N. Osaka | 2 - 0 |
| L | M. Pohankova | 0 - 2 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | J. Paolini | 2 - 0 | Oct. 27, 2026 |
| L | K. Muchova | 2 - 1 | Oct. 6, 2026 |
| W | S. Bejlek | 0 - 2 | Oct. 4, 2026 |
| W | M. Timofeeva | 1 - 2 | Oct. 2, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | 2 - 0 | Oct. 29, 2026 |
| W | M. Uchijima | 0 - 2 | Oct. 26, 2026 |
| L | L. Fernandez | 1 - 2 | Oct. 19, 2026 |
| L | D. Snigur | 2 - 0 | Oct. 13, 2026 |
| L | Q. Zheng | 2 - 0 | Oct. 10, 2026 |
All June 23, 2026 results & picks →