TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in M. Navone vs J. Munar (Geneva on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with M. Navone favoured at 1.91.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | M. Navone | J. Munar |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
65.6% | 34.4% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
71.9% | 28.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
47.0% | 53.0% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
61.5% | 38.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
50.0% | 50.0% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated July 23, 2026.
M. Navone leads 1–0 over 1 meeting. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Geneva | clay | M. Navone | 2 - 0 |
| W | M. Berrettini | 1 - 2 | Aug. 3, 2026 |
| L | Q. Halys | 0 - 2 | July 23, 2026 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 0 - 2 | July 22, 2026 |
| W | A. Muller | 0 - 2 | July 20, 2026 |
| L | S. Travaglia | 2 - 0 | July 15, 2026 |
| W | R. Hijikata | 2 - 0 | Aug. 2, 2026 |
| L | D. Stricker | 2 - 0 | July 13, 2026 |
| L | J. Lehecka | 3 - 1 | July 4, 2026 |
| W | J. Fearnley | 0 - 3 | July 2, 2026 |
| W | F. Cerundolo | 3 - 0 | June 30, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used