TennisEdge's AI model finds no betting value in A. Michelsen vs L. Tien (Geneva on 2026-05-21) — the market is efficient, with L. Tien favoured at 1.84.
Independent estimates of who wins, each from a different method. The blend is what the bot prices against the market.
| Method | A. Michelsen | L. Tien |
|---|---|---|
| Elo ratings-based, surface-weighted |
50.4% | 49.6% |
| Machine learning 29-feature gradient-boosted model |
41.9% | 58.1% |
| Serve / return point-by-point simulation |
38.1% | 61.9% |
| Blend what the bot actually prices off |
43.5% | 56.5% |
| Market implied de-vigged from the opening odds |
47.9% | 52.1% |
We publish how well these score against the closing market, including where they lose: how accurate are tennis predictions?
| Player | Surface | Elo | Record | Matches |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Michelsen | hard | 1895 | 148–85 | 233 |
| L. Tien | hard | 1905 | 155–56 | 211 |
Our own ratings, computed from match results since 2018. Players with fewer than 5 rated matches are omitted rather than shown at a provisional starting value. Last updated Aug. 4, 2026.
A. Michelsen leads 3–2 over 5 meetings. Full record.
| Date | Event | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2026 | Geneva | clay | L. Tien | 2 - 1 |
| Jan. 7, 2026 | Brisbane | hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 |
| Aug. 2, 2025 | Toronto | hard | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 |
| April 1, 2025 | Houston | clay | A. Michelsen | 2 - 0 |
| Dec. 21, 2024 | ATP Next Gen Finals - Jeddah | hard | L. Tien | 3 - 2 |
| W | J-L. Struff | 2 - 1 | Aug. 4, 2026 |
| L | T. Fritz | 2 - 1 | July 31, 2026 |
| W | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 29, 2026 |
| W | M. McDonald | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| W | J. Fearnley | 2 - 0 | July 26, 2026 |
| L | A. Mannarino | 2 - 0 | July 28, 2026 |
| L | M. Fucsovics | 3 - 1 | July 1, 2026 |
| W | D. Svrcina | 1 - 3 | June 29, 2026 |
| W | L. Darderi | 0 - 2 | June 26, 2026 |
| L | G. Mpetshi Perricard | 1 - 2 | June 23, 2026 |
All May 21, 2026 results & picks →
Math-only prediction: no LLM calls used